Folks.... as I’ve mentioned before, projections are done with a prevailing
Mindset serving as the foundation........ and the D1 guys are old-schoolers that have certain realities built into their minds. One of those is the SEC getting 4 if they have 4 close...... and 5 if a case can be made for it. Beyond that, despite the fact that it’s not explicitly addressed, they tend to seed division winners in large conferences as champions in their pre-conf. tourney projections. And finally, last but not least, “ties” are broken between teams by leaning on conference rankings.
The factors explained above tell you exactly why the projection has and will continue to look the way it does. The bright side is that each year’s committee works just a little different, so NOBODY can nail their thought process exactly. The downside is that the group at D1 has about as experienced a group as could possibly be assembled for the effort, so they’re apt to be closer to correct than most (overall).